Spatial patterns in Arabian Gulf coral assemblages (Jebel Ali, Dubai, U.A.E.) in response to temperature-forcing

We evaluated spatial and temporal patterns using maps from Ikonos satellite imagery in combination with 8 years of line transects and photosquares and the HadISST1 sea-surface temperature data set to explain why coral assemblages in the southern Arabian Gulf (Dubai) are impoverished and mostly do not build framework reefs. Analysis of archive sea surface temperature (SST) data confirms that the area is subjected to recurrent temperature anomalies. Frequencies of anomalies might suggest at least a partial link to the El Niño Southern Oscillation possibly via the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode. The dominant driver of local temperature was oscillations in the position of the subtropical jetstream. Classification of IKONOS satellite data showed that the spatial expression of four coral assemblages was consistent with reef development on a (multi-)decadal time-scale following recurring episodes of coral mass mortality induced by severe SST anomalies. Merging a remotely sensed map of substrate distribution with a detailed bathymetric digital elevation model revealed no evidence of significant framework development, suggesting that the cycle of temperature induced mortality has been operating for a considerable time.